How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napierone,bagged almost $1.5 million on soccer last year using Betting Exchange odds. According to his book, “Bookie Bonus Buster”, the average odds placed on soccer are around 4.3.
Let’s say you back a selection at the odds of 4.3 to win. In order to get an indication whether you are getting value in your bet, you need to know the percentage of return the bookie is returning. The Bookie, or the bookmaker, will have an odd of 50% or even 100%. What this means is, when the stake is 50% returned, you have a total of 150% profit on your one ticket.
However, if you back a selection at the odds of 4.3, only the bookie is returning 50% of the stake placed on the selection. This gives you a total of 150% profit on your bet.
So according to the bookie, if you place a stake of £10 on Team A, you will earn £10 plus of course your own stake £10. You are then keeping £30, or in this example $30, for dealing with the withdrawal problems on the betting exchange. You have therefore arrived at a total profit of £30.
This does not take into account the cost of the bookie’s odds, the cost of his storage, the cost of his service, his customer services, his cost of replacing his service man, or his other costs.
The Margin
On the betting exchanges, you may be able to find a situation where the Bookie is willing to take a risk in relation to the likelihood of a goal being scored in a football match. This is where you would extract a small profit in your betting exchange bets.
Removing the Guarantee
You can also remove the guarantee on the price of the goal in your betting exchange football bet by placing the stake on say the next score in the match. In this situation, both you and the Bookie are in profit. The fee you paid to the Bookie was the profit you got, or you just got even money.
With the removed guarantee, both you and the Bookie are now guaranteed to win their respective bets, but you have paid a larger amount to secure the profit.
The flaw in the system
In a betting exchange, your stake is paid back by the opposing gamblers, or “aggressive” punters, at the odds they choose to place their odds. If the gamblers are in such a rush to get their desired return, they will sometimes (and frequently) fail to consider the risk of losing their stakes. This means that you may still lose your stake even though the odds presented to you seem to be in your favour.
Although mathematicians may argue that the outcomes of the matches are independent events, the Bookie still has a vested interest in the outcomes of the matches he has set. He is in business to make money and he will not lose a sale because of gamblers failing to agree on the odds.
The solution
With this problem in mind, the solution for the pokerlounge99 is to use the betting exchanges to find their bets. By placing a stake on a exchange, you immediately allow yourself to back or lay at any odds you wish using your own currency.
Backers use the betting exchange and place back your stake in the exchange. When you wish to place a bet yourself you use the betting exchange to find out exactly how much you need to bet in pounds or pence. You will never have to worry about whether you can afford to pay in pounds or pence when betting online on an exchange.
When you place a bet using the betting exchange, the gamblers are betting against you. This means that if you think the outcome of a match will be less than a certain percentage, you can lay off the equivalent of your stake in the betting exchange at the bookmakers odds and thereby lock in your profit.
On the other hand, if you feel that the outcome of a match will be more than the “book” odds, you can lay off the equivalent of your stake at the bookmaker’s odds and thereby lock in your profit. In effect, you are making a guaranteed profit. Stake horse racing betting exchange can be symbolised as a reverse futures contract in that you bet on a particular horse winning in a race, against the background of a competing majority bet on the horse to win. For example, betting on a horse to win in a race where the odds are 3/1, you are backing that horse to win. In this case, if you laid off your stake in the betting exchange at 3/1, you would lose your £10.