Three years ago, I met an old friend that I hadn’t seen in decade. We sat down over a cup of coffee and discussed our lives, where each of us had retired after we had gotten our college degrees. We had each other’s back and were at the peak of our careers. I was a consultant doing contract work for a sports management firm, and he was a professional gambler making a living off the records the books were selling–cards, not numbers.
I wanted to get my feet wet with real sports betting. He wanted to master the game, and loved anything that had to do with it: NFL games, baseball, basketball, horse racing, anything involving numbers. Let’s just say that we touched a little of the same flots. Each of us had different interests, and he was more than willing to map out a plan for the future.
We first plotted out our goals to pick the 2005 Super Bowl winner. I had my doubts that the underdogs would win their game against the favored Chargers, and we both agreed that it was going to take at least a month or two to figure it out. It ended up being a year ago.
It took both of us a year to figure out what the heck we were going to do. We couldn’t pick a winner the first week, so we didn’t do the actual wagering. We sat around and watched every sports center in the world give its expert picks, figuring out which side we were on and coming up with a plan of action.
It took a lot of research, and we used the services of a professional handicapper for the entire season. Once we were done compiling the numbers and creating our picks, we sat back and enjoyed the season. We had each National League championship a year. We bet the over/under for each Timid’s pick. We picked Pittsburgh to win the same over/under for the AFC. Finally, we turned the brainteasers off, because we were sure we were onto something big.
Our first week of the season we had the popular “Dewapoker” bet. Someone I do know and trust had the misfortune of laying the single digit against the popular “Straight Up” bet, laying it at -3000. Being the numbers game I am, I went for the Win bet instead, figuring I could do better than that. Who would of thought it would be +300?
Anyways, we laid it -3000, and I needed to see some action. At first, the only numbers that we could see were the Over/Under for the match. That meant we had bets on either outcome that we felt had a strong probability of happening. For the sake of conversation, we’ll call these bets Ball 7ARTY and AFC.
We made Ball 7ARTY bets or wagers covering the spread of our choosing. I can tell you right now we were 90% certain the over/under would be +300 or more, and the moneyline bet we made was +300.ockers. For those of you that want to be able to)…can you?
We then established an accuracy factor of about 97%. That accuracy factor tells us that over the last month, if the scoring had been exactly the same at the end of the game, we would have collected about $1,000 more on the over side. Consistent about the way we went about it, right?
The day of the match-up, we got some action on the over/under. At first, we had a lot of concentration on the money line bet, because that was the only other bet we were going to make that day. After that, we had a whole day of action. Out of the top four teams in the league, we had the Texans as a home underdog, the Dolphins as a road favorite, the Eagles as a home favorite, and the Redskins as a road favorite. Pretty sure who won all that action, right?